Trump Appears Uninterested in Winning Others Over, Content to Energize His Base

In previous columns, I have shared my belief that Trump supporters are unreachable. (They have been labeled “Cult 45.”) One could conclude from watching Trump’s rally in Tulsa that either he believes he can win over the rest of us or, more likely, that he sees electoral success in further demonizing us and thereby energizing his base to turn out for him on Nov. 3.  What he doesn't seem to realize is that his words energizes his oponents to turn out, too.

Rita and I watched his full speech at the Tulsa rally, fascinated as always at how he appeals to that base. But that base may be shrinking. He was understandably furious about the poor turnout, filling only 6,200 of 19,000 seats, but that was an improvement from how he boasted that attendance at his inauguration was the largest ever. (It was in defense of that claim that Kellyanne Conway made her famous statement about “alternative facts” on Meet the Press two days later, setting the tone for his entire presidency.)

We continue to be intrigued by how Trump supporters are able to overlook his lies, dog whistles to the “deplorables,” scorning of allies and flattering of dictators, obscene language and generally despicable behavior. How would you feel if someone you supported (or just liked) was adored by white supremacists, neo-Nazis, racists and the like? (I wrote about Hillary Clinton’s now-famous September 2016  “deplorables” speech last week, when this column appeared only on this blog.)

Like me, you probably know respectable, college-educated professionals who say they like Trump, and I enjoy conversing with them to figure out why. What I usually find is that they like how his tax cuts benefited them financially — as they did Donald Trump himself. 

One such supporter is a friend of mine, a highly successful Realtor whom I’ve known and admired for over a decade.  She said she supports Trump because his tax cuts have benefited her personally. (She’s far more successful that I am, with 59 closings, two of them over $1 million, in the past 12 months.)  She told me she is willing to overlook his negatives because of that, which I find disappointing.

    There’s another group of non-deplorable Trump supporters that surprises me, because it is in our local Rotary club, to which Rita and I both belonged.  I love and appreciate Rotary for  its “Four-Way Test of the things we think, say or do,” which Rotarians recite at every meeting following the Pledge of Allegiance.  It goes like this:

•  First, is it the truth?
•  Second, is it fair to all concerned?
•  Third, does it build goodwill and better friendships?
•  Fourth, will it be beneficial to all concerned?

As Rita and I joined in reciting the Four-Way Test every Tuesday, it occurred to me after Trump took office, that our president’s thoughts, words and deeds would fail that test. We will never forget when a visiting Rotarian leader gave a talk about the Four-Way Test early in Trump’s reign.  During the Q&A part of the meeting, I thought it appropriate, despite the unspoken rule about avoiding politics, to ask the speaker how we as Rotarians should relate to a president who consistently violates all four tenets of the Test.

The following week, I was told by the club president that “several” Rotarians had complained about me asking that question — although not to me directly. The following week four female members of the club, including Rita, all resigned in protest. I stayed on, but only for another year. I believe in my heart that the vast majority of Rotarians are good people who reject Donald Trump’s leadership or lack thereof.

I considered submitting an article to Rotarian magazine raising this issue, but I never did.  I decided — hopefully wrongly — that it would not have been published, because Trump’s 30% base probably includes many Rotarians, and the organization can’t afford to offend them.  I’m happy to raise the subject in print here for the first time. 

I’m disappointed that any Rotarian thinks the Four-Way Test need only apply to them and it’s okay to support others who blatantly violate it, as Trump does every day.

Let's Revisit Hillary Clinton's 'Basket of Deplorables' Remarks About Trump Supporters

Read this and tell me if this doesn't have the ring of truth.  Hillary was pilloried for her "basket of deplorables" comment, but we need to remember the full context of her comments. She didn't say all Trump supporters were deplorable, but who can deny after witnessing three-plus years of Trump's dog whistles to alt-right white supremacists in Charlottesville and elsewhere that enough of his supporters are truly deplorable and that they provided the margin of victory in an election where he only won in the Electoral College? 

Does the rest of America have any remorse for liking a candidate who is adored by racists, white supremacists and other people who the average American would indeed consider deplorable?  

Read what Hillary said two months before the election, taken from a Time magazine posting online, and see for yourself if it doesn't ring true in hindsight:

“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right?” Clinton said. “The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people — now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America. But the other basket — and I know this because I see friends from all over America here — I see friends from Florida and Georgia and South Carolina and Texas — as well as, you know, New York and California — but that other basket of people are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they’re just desperate for change. It doesn’t really even matter where it comes from. They don’t buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won’t wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroine, feel like they’re in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well."

Right there is the explanation for why Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and thereby lost the election.  She knew Trump appealed to those voters, but she didn't even campaign in those states, taking those working class, mostly Democratic, voters for granted.

"And there’s so much more than I find deplorable in his campaign: the way that he cozies up to white supremacist, makes racist attacks, calls women pigs, mocks people with disabilities — you can’t make this up. He wants to round up and deport 16 million people, calls our military a disaster. And every day he says something else which I find so personally offensive, but also dangerous. You know, the idea of our country is so rooted in continuing progress that we make together. Our campaign slogan is not just words. We really do believe that we are stronger together. We really do believe that showing respect and appreciation for one another lifts us all up."
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Here's another excerpt from Hillary's speech that resonates:

How Will Trump’s Election Impact the Real Estate Market & Industry?

Last week, before I knew the election results, I speculated on how supporters of the losing presidential candidate would act.  Now that we know who will be our 45th President, let’s look at how the real estate market and the industry itself might be affected.

Suffice it to say that Donald Trump’s campaign was not rich in specific and unchanging policy positions. The promises he made were spoken to activate his base, and we are already seeing him back off from the more extreme statements that brought his rally-goers to their feet.

I don’t believe Trump’s election will be nearly as disruptive as one might have expected from his campaign rhetoric. I see his bombast as an act which did not completely reflect his personal positions. I suspect that six months from now those who voted for him will be nearly as upset as those who voted against him.

 

He won’t appoint a special prosecutor to investigate “crooked Hillary.” He won’t build a great wall along the Mexican border. He won’t try to deport millions of undocumented Mexicans, just those who are convicted of crimes (as Obama has been doing). He won’t ban Muslims from entering the country. He won’t repeal Obamacare but rather modify it (as Hillary Clinton said she’d do). And sorry, coal miners, Trump can’t do anything to change the market forces that are killing your industry. Your jobs aren’t coming back.

 

As for renewable energy, it has, thanks to past support, reached the tipping point where it is cheaper than fossil fuels, so the loss of federal tax credits, if enacted, will do little to slow its growth and the decline of oil and gas.  Ditto for electric vs. gas-powered cars.

 

My prediction that Trump will break many of his promises is based in part on his record as a long-time Democrat who had praised (and funded) Hillary Clinton as a U.S. Senator from New York, and who previously, for example, supported abortion rights. As I see it, he wanted to be elected President, and running as a Republican appealing to the “silent majority” was the only path he saw. Now that he has won election, he will moderate his views to more closely match his longtime less conservative views. Trump’s Republican opponents voiced this possibility during the primaries.

 

This is not to say that he won’t take actions that will deeply upset Democrats. He will appoint conservatives to the Supreme Court which could lead to overturning Roe v. Wade.  But, as he said on 60 Minutes, abortion would simply become a state-level issue, and women wanting an abortion might have to travel to get one — not what I’d call a hard-core anti-abortion position.  I bet the right-to-life folks didn’t like hearing that!

 

As for his impact on real estate, keep in mind that he’s a real estate mogul. I don’t think the real estate community has a lot to worry about.  He will not move to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. We can expect some deregulation, including reversal of many Dodd-Frank provisions which made borrowing harder. Developers will have a friend in the White House.

 

The real estate industry and the real estate market will be just fine under President Trump. Interest rates will continue their slow rise, just as they would have done under Clinton. The gun industry will probably suffer far more, as people stop stocking up on assault weapons in anticipation of an anti-gun president.

 

The biggest challenge I see America facing is de-energizing the “alt right” population — white supremacists, anti-Muslim folks, and other haters — who were emboldened by Trump’s election based on his rhetoric. Simply saying “Stop it” to such persons on 60 Minutes is not going to be enough, but hopefully Trump will realize that and speak more powerfully to those forces before they get too far out of control.

 

In conclusion, I’m less afraid of President Trump than I was of candidate Trump, and, like Obama and other Democratic leaders, am cautiously optimistic.

Published Nov. 17, 2016, in the YourHub section of the Denver Post and in four Jefferson County weekly newspapers.

What Effect Will the Election Results Have on the Real Estate Market?

As a “political junkie” who has also run for office back in New York, I’m as appalled as anyone by the rhetoric of this year’s presidential election. I’m writing this on Monday, so I have no idea what’s ahead of us come Wednesday and beyond, but for now I am consumed with anxiety about how the week will unfold, and not just about who wins.

Forget the talk about it being a poor choice between Trump and Clinton. The bigger issue has become how the supporters of the losing candidate handle their loss and how they treat the winner. It could affect the real estate market, too.

One can only hope that all the nonsense will now transform into peaceful acceptance of the outcome. Normally, we are accustomed to a polite concession by the loser and a cordial offer to work with the winner for the betterment of our republic. Al Gore did that in 2000 when the Supreme Court stopped the Florida recount which might well have benefited him.

 

This election is different, in that many Trump supporters have been enlarging their stockpile of guns and ammo — you can never have enough, apparently — to defend the republic against Hillary Clinton. Also, some “2nd Amendment folks” might just be contemplating Trump’s suggestion about taking action against a President Clinton before she abolishes the 2nd Amendment (as if she could do that). Meanwhile, Clinton supporters are distraught about the damage a President Trump might do to America, both nationally and internationally.

If the Secret Service thought it had its hands full protecting President Obama, they’ve got a bigger job ahead of them regardless of which candidate takes the White House.

Meanwhile, I hear a lot of talk among Clinton supporters of leaving the country if Trump wins. Most talk is about Canada, but others are eyeing Europe, figuring that Canada might build a wall to slow the flow of Americans heading north. (Just kidding.)

 

If this talk is serious, and if Trump wins, don’t be surprised if there is a surge in homes listed for sale. That’s business I do not look forward to getting!  .

 

Trump supporters are less likely to leave the country if Clinton wins. Remember, they have guns to protect them from the anticipated tyranny of a Clinton presidency. Their rhetoric gives me the impression sometimes that they relish the prospect of engaging in that long-anticipated battle against a tyrannical government.

 

Not knowing as I write this what the election results will be, I won’t waste more space on speculation based on Trump winning vs. Clinton winning and what the effect on the real estate market will be. There will be plenty of time to write about that when I learn the results (which you already know!). Perhaps you can understand, however, why it was hard for me to come up with a column this week on some other real estate topic. Like the rest of America (and the world), I can’t get my mind off the election and only wish for this nightmare of a presidential campaign to be over soon — hopefully on election day.

Published Nov. 10, 2016, in the YourHub section of the Denver Post and in four Jefferson County weekly newspapers.