Denver Has 10 of the Nation’s 50 Most Competitive Real Estate Neighborhoods

According to data from Redfin, as published last week by the Denver Business Journal, the Denver metro area has 10 of the 50 most competitive neighborhoods in the country.  Four of them are in Aurora, four of them are in Jefferson County, and two of them are in the City and  County of Denver.

Competitiveness was determined by looking at a combination of factors including the percentage of homes that sold above asking price, were on the market under a week, and that sold for cash and above asking price.

Nationally, only Seattle and Boston had more competitive neighborhoods.

The top ranked Denver neighborhood is College View, coming in at #13 nationally. The median sales price in this neighborhood was $230,000, reflecting an average price growth of 31.4% over the previous year. The ratio of sales price to listing price was 100.7%, with 56.6% of listings selling above asking price. The median days on market was 5, and 41.7% of sales were cash.

The other Denver neighborhood in the top 50 was Mar Lee, which ranked #40 nationally, with a median sales price of $260,000. The average increase in sold prices over 2015 was 15.6%.  Average sale-to-listing price ratio was 101.8%, with 53.2% of homes selling above the listing price.  Median days on market was 6, and 27.2% of sales were cash.

If median prices seem low in some of the most competitive neighborhoods, it’s because of the high number of condos and townhomes vs. single family homes there. The greatest increases in sales prices due to competitive bidding is in the lower price ranges populated primarily by condos and townhomes.

These neighborhoods may have ranked higher than the City and County as a whole, but Denver did pretty well itself and would probably rank pretty highly nationwide if the data were compiled by county instead of neighborhood.

In the City and County of Denver as a whole, the median days on market was 8 and the average home sold for 100% of listing price.  The median sales price was $365,000, which was 9.0% above 2015. Citywide, 24.6% of the listings sold for cash.

In Jefferson County, the median days on market was 7 and the average home sold for 100.4% of listing price. The median sales price was $360,844, which was 12.8% above 2015. Countywide, 15% of the listings sold for cash. 

Highest rated in Jefferson County was the Lakeside neighborhood, ranked #8 nationally, where the median sale price was $370,000, an increase of 27.6% over 2015. 58.4% of listings sold above their listing price. The average home sold for 102.1% of the asking price. Median days on market was 6, and 32.3% of homes sold for cash.

Next highest, rated at #12 nationally, was the West Pleasantview neighborhood, just east of the City of Golden, where the median sales price was $350,000, 20.1% higher than in 2015. 47.8% of homes sold above their asking price, with an average differential of 102.3%.  Median days on market was 6, and 38.5% of the homes sold for cash.

The next Jeffco neighborhood in the top 50 nationwide was the Union Square section of Lakewood, rated #23 nationally.  There the median sales price was only $194,500, but that was 18.8% higher than in 2015.  52.5% of listings sold above their asking price, with an average differential of 101.2%.  The median days on market was 4, and 32% of homes sold for cash.

The last Jeffco neighborhood to rank in the top 50 nationally was Bear Creek, at #42, with a median sale price of $225,000, up 17.4% from 2015. 64.7% of homes in this neighborhood sold above listing price, with the average differential being 102.4%. Median days on market was 4, and 18.8% were cash sales.

In Aurora, the median days on market was 6, and the average home sold for 100.8% of listing price.  The median sales price was $275,000, which was 12.2% above 2015. Citywide, 14% of Aurora listings sold for cash.

The four Aurora neighborhoods which ranked among the 50 most competitive nationally, according to Redfin, were Hoffman Town (#14), Highline Villages (#17), Horseshoe Park (#27), and Northwest Aurora (#38).

Published Jan. 5, 2016, in the YourHub section of the Denver Post and in four Jefferson County weekly newspapers.

Real Estate May Be Slow Nationally, But Front Range Buyers Are on a Tear

[Published May 3, 2012, in the Denver Post]

I’m always trying to develop new metrics — new ways of analyzing our local real estate market, especially when what I’m seeing and experiencing here is so different from the picture painted in the national (and Denver) media.

Below are two such metrics that I devised in the last six months. If you look at the changes over time for both metrics, you really get a sense that our market has sprung back to life, despite national reports to the contrary.

Developing such new metrics is made easy by Metrolist, Denver’s MLS, which has created an advanced search capability under “Prime Access” that allows unlimited search combinations.

Here’s another measurement I made just now: Of the 8,028 new listings entered on the three Front Range MLS’s this April, 2,955 or 36.9% were sold or under contract by the end of the same month. Of the 8,162 entered in March, 51% are now under contract or sold.

NOTE: A higher-resolution image of these tables is posted at www.JimSmithColumns.com.

If you don't think the housing market is improving, ask any Realtor!

[Published April 5, 2012 in the Denver Post]

At the end of every month I run a count of active and under contract homes on Metrolist, the Denver MLS which also displays listings from the other two MLS’s serving Colorado’s Front Range. I post my findings on my blog (see previous posting), but this week they deserve mention in my column, too. 

The trend since I started doing these reports last October has been steadily up, depleting available listings faster than would-be sellers can replenish them.

Back in October, 23.9% of all unsold listings on the three MLS’s were under contract. The remaining 76.1% were available.  Today, 44.1% of unsold listings are under contract, leaving only 55.9% available to purchase. In other words, the single biggest contributor to the shrinking inventory is that buyers are snapping up listings faster than new ones can be added.

Everyone in our little office is busier than they’ve ever been.  We have far more buyers and sellers under contract than we have active listings.  It’s common to have other buyers competing with our buyers for listings. Just last week, I submitted a full price offer for a client on a home, and even had an additional provision that she would exceed any competing offer by $1,000.  We lost to another buyer who offered a cash closing in 6 days at $5,000 over asking price.  That’s the kind of market we’re experiencing now.

The supply vs. demand ratio is so unbalanced right now, that homes are selling for more than they might appraise for based on last year’s sales. This is not necessarily a problem, since appraisers do give some weight to the offer itself when determining value.

Percentage of Listings Under Contract Surges Past the 40% Mark!

[Published March 8, 2012, in the Denver Post]

I’ve been tracking this statistic since October, and the trend is almost shocking. As of Tuesday, Mar. 6th, 42.3% of all MLS listings in the non-foothills areas of Jeffco are under contract.

Here’s how the percentage under contract for the entire MLS has risen in just 5 months:

      Oct. 31—23.9%

      Nov. 30—27.3%

      Dec. 31—26.8%

      Jan. 31—29.8%

      Feb. 29—39.7%

When I checked again just now(Tuesday, Mar. 6), that percentage had risen further to 41.2%.  Think about it — four out of 10 “for sale” signs you see are in front of homes that are under contract!  Back in November, I thought 27.3% was high!

How high can this figure go?  In Denver Southwest, Denver Northeast, the City of Aurora and Adams County it has already surpassed 50%. For condos under $100,000, 59.5% are under contract. In Jeffco, that figure is 64%.

Buyers are snapping up listings faster than sellers can put them on the market.  For example, the total inventory on Feb. 29 was 500 higher than on Jan. 31st, but the number of homes not under contract fell by 400 during the same time-frame.

Anyone who is thinking about selling their home should seriously consider putting their home on the market now, because, if it is priced right, it should sell quickly.

This is not to say that homes in all price ranges are selling quickly.  Here’s the percentage of inventory under contract by price range as of Feb. 29th:

     Under $200,000—56.3%

     $200,001-300,000—40.6%

     $300,001-400,000—33.7%

     $400,001-500,000—28.7%

     $500,001-600,000—22.8%

     $601,001-700,000—20.6%

     $700,001-$1,000,000—16.3%

     Over $1,000,000—11.1%

I attribute this prolonged winter-time spurt of buying primarily to the record low interest rates. (I just refinanced my home for 2.875% on a 5/1 ARM.)  The fact that interest rates recently started creeping upward has only pushed more buyers off the fence.

Think about it. The same dynamic that makes you buy gas this week if you know it will be more expensive next week is making buyers buy now before interest rates (and prices) go higher.

Like many agents, I have buyers who can’t find what they want, so I have created a "Buyer Needs" page on our company website, www.Golden RealEstate.com. That way sellers might actually be able to sell their home without putting it on the market.  Does it get any better than that?

My full statistical analysis by area and price range is posted just below this posting.

New Website Helps Buyers/Sellers Verify Agent Performance

[Published March 1, 2012, in the Denver Post]

     Sellers struggle when it comes to selecting the best real estate agent. One reason is that there is literally nowhere — except the member-only MLS — to find statistics about an agent’s performance.

     Attempts to provide rankings or reviews of real estate agents have been attempted unsuccessfully by numerous parties, including Zillow and Redfin, and the Realtor associations have toyed with the idea over the years, but without success. Basically, the vast majority of agents, including Realtors, are not doing a lot of business — NAR reports that the average member’s gross income last year was only $36,000 — and that has scuttled any attempt at introducing such a service.

The public, however, still needs to get the raw facts on agent performance: number of listings sold, average days on market, and even whether the agent is a Realtor and the status of their license.

So I have created a website, where, for a nominal fee, anyone can request the stats on one or more agents with whom they are considering doing business. It’s in beta testing now, but go ahead and give it a spin!

The web address is http://www.RealEstateAgentCheck.com/  

Supply of Homes for Sale Is Being Depleted; We Need More Homes on Market

[As published on Jan. 19, 2012, in the Denver Post]

The statistics speak for themselves. Right now there are 31% fewer homes for sale on the Denver MLS than there were at this time last year.  In the non-foothills portion of Jefferson County, the inventory of homes for sale is down 39% from a year ago. 

Despite fewer homes to choose from, the number of homes under contract is up by 13% from last year.  Thus, the percentage of inventory that is under contract is 27.5% vs. 18.8% a year ago.  In Jeffco, that percentage is even higher.

The bottom line message could not be clearer.  If you are thinking of selling your home, there is no better time than now to put it on the market.  We need inventory!

Buyers are buying right now, and for a very good reason.  The interest rates are at record lows. Look at these rates offered by a lender with whom I do business:  30-Yr Fixed—3.75% (Jumbo* 3.875%)  15-Yr Fixed—3.0% (Jumbo—3.125%)  5/1 ARM—2.125% (Jumbo—same rate)  FHA 30-Yr Fixed—3.75% (no points)

The above rates all include one point, except for FHA. If you want to pay no points on the non-FHA loans, the rate is 0.25% to 0.375% higher. 

As a guide, each 1% change in rate on a $250,000 loan saves or costs the borrower about $50,000 in interest over a 30-year term.

Not only should sellers consider putting their home on the market at this time, but buyers should get off the fence and buy before rates go up. Remember, you can buy a home with as little as $1,000 down in Colorado, thanks to the Colorado Housing and Finance Authority (CHFA). If you don’t have a good lender, I’d be happy to refer you to one.  Call me at 303-525-1851.

*A “jumbo” loan is a loan over the conventional loan limit of $417,000.